"Bad news: Unless the experts are wrong, California suburbs will continue to sprawl beyond the horizon.
The threat of global warming pales next to the allure of a backyard
sliver of green. Two-hour commutes are tough, but it's even tougher to
persuade an older suburb to allow dense new housing downtown.
Am I being cynical? No. I'm passing along the verdict of 150
professional planners after they watched six of their peers debate
whether or not our state is prepared to change the way it grows.
"California was built for the car," jousted Marjorie Macris, one of
the three skeptics on the panel. "Retrofitting it to look like
Switzerland will be extremely difficult."
The debate occurred last week in San Jose during the annual
conference of the California chapter of the American Planning
Association. And it truly was a debate; the two teams jabbed
within a tight time frame over the topic: "Resolved, that California is
ready for complex urban development."
(Full disclosure: I was in the middle, the moderator keeping an eye on the clock.)
For those of you who don't read planning journals for fun, "complex
urban development" is a new synonym for "smart growth." The premise is
that we need to steer new growth into older areas, mix in mass transit
and not be afraid to stack a few floors of housing on top of shops and
small offices.
Blend everything together and - voila! It's North Beach without the $4 cappuccinos.
This isn't an arcane topic: California's population is now 36
million, and demographers expect us to hit 59 million by 2032. If we
follow the mold of the past 50 years, most of those folks will be
housed in single-family homes in suburban tracts, more and more of them
tucked behind sound walls or gates.
Logically, there's a limit to how many culs-de-sac can blanket the
landscape. We're also now grappling with the knowledge that pollution
and energy consumption are not local issues; your drive to work emits
carbon that plays a role in the retreat of ice from the Arctic Circle.
"We have no other choice, and we are ready," argued Al Zelinka of
RBF Consulting in Irvine. He talked of how Orange County has downtown
housing and condo towers taking root. "Green" buildings now are touted
by developers and demanded by governments. "We're at the tipping point.
... Suburbanization will continue, but the wave will be in
urbanization."
One of Zelinka's allies touted regulations that would use such lures
as cash bonuses for transit-friendly housing to move development in a
more compact direction.
"The limits of suburban development have been reached," argued Steve
Lawton, community development director for Hercules and the organizer
of the debate. "This state can turn on a dime when it has the will and
policy inclination to do so."
The con side nodded politely and then bore in. Its argument: Get
real! California is too large and contentious for plannerly visions to
make much of a mark.
"It's spectacular delusional hubris to think that good sense will
prevail," proclaimed developer John Anderson of Chico. "People feel
entitled to their fantasy."
Another opponent was more polite but no less pointed.
"I've seen the problems. I just don't think we're ready to solve
them," argued David Sargent of the Pasadena design firm Moule +
Polyzoides. He emphasized the lack of strong regional governments.
Another problem: an environmental process that can be used to kill
projects that neighbors don't want, even though banning growth in an
established community can cause it to move to farmland or hillsides on
the outskirts instead.
At the end, I asked the crowd to vote one way or the other. The cons
had it - by a landslide. In a logical world shaped by what the mass of
people want, we'd have communities with more housing options and a
convenient range of transportation alternatives. Many young adults
today aren't in a hurry to settle down in a cul-de-sac - and many of
their parents would love to sell their home on the cul-de-sac but still live in the suburbs close to their friends.
But the real world is a local political stew where the loudest
voices are the ones who want the status quo preserved at all cost.
Statewide planning regulations, meanwhile, look great in press releases
but often are disconnected from daily life.
Which puts me on the side of the cons: The small victories for more
livable regions seem to be no match for the larger forces that want
things the way they are. I sure hope we're wrong."
Recent Comments